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An analytical study of the investment potential in Uganda

May’s resignation, and possible replacement by Boris Johnson, does show that the risk of a no-deal Brexit is rising with betting markets having raised their up from roughly 10-15% to 20-25% in recent weeks. We reiterate that the economic damage of a no-deal Brexit would be substantial.

President Trump’s decision to raise tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese imports, and the resulting Chinese retaliation, is likely to have only modest impacts on energy commodities and precious metals. The bigger story for these sectors is declining growth expectations that are only partially due to trade tensions. Trade tensions are, however, likely to be a major driver for industrial metals over the near-term.

Growth Concerns, Not Trade, Have Driven Much of Commodities Recent Slump. Several major developments in trade tensions, including President Trump’s May 5 tweet threatening to raise tariffs and Thursday’s night’s threat to hit all Mexican imports with 5% tariffs, have clearly contributed to the poor May performance of crude oil, industrial metals, and many other commodities.

We have been fairly optimistic about gold prices over the next year or so. Nevertheless, the latest rise in gold prices from $1280/ounce on May 29 to $1342 as of June 7 (4.8%) seems to be based on unsound factors and there is a good chance that these gains prove fleeting in the near-term. Specifically, markets are dramatically overreacting to hints that the FOMC may soon start cutting interest rates.