Veritaseum made a very interesting and controversial research report predicting significant margin calls in the yet to be launched bitcoin futures market. Well, now that we have two months of trading data to analyze, we get to brag and boast say, "We told you so". This is also a good opportunity to show how we can enable investors to gain exposure to bitcoin through VeADIR. We have revisited our Bitcoin future margin call research offered to VERI holders in early December of last year. This updated research covers the date of listing of CBOE BTC futures (11 Dec 2017) until last week. We have kept the same assumptions that we used in the initial research, except that we have now inserted actual BTC future prices for the aforementioned period These assumptions are summarized below:
- §Initial Margin of 30% for Bitcoin Future
- §Bitcoin Future Addressable Volume to be 25% of the S&P 500 volume
To put the update in perspective, this is an excerpted page from the original research - warning of the likelihood of significant, material and probably unprecedented margin calls.
Fastforward back to today... The table below illustrates the margin calls on short and long BTC futures. The volatility in BTC prices would have resulted in margin calls on almost all days during this period.
Below is the table showing Long and Short Margin Call from 11th Dec 2017 to 6th Feb 2018
|
BTC Future Date |
BTC Future Volume |
Margin Calls - Long |
Margin Calls – Short |
|
12/11/2017 |
772,987,500 |
3,787,568,702 |
- |
|
12/12/2017 |
888,920,000 |
4,805,027,231 |
- |
|
12/13/2017 |
885,592,500 |
4,079,566,768 |
- |
|
12/14/2017 |
857,507,500 |
4,161,403,407 |
- |
|
12/15/2017 |
1,430,980,000 |
8,563,207,407 |
- |
|
12/16/2017 |
1,430,980,000 |
8,883,927,955 |
- |
|
12/17/2017 |
1,430,980,000 |
9,199,193,256 |
- |
|
12/18/2017 |
931,165,000 |
7,543,421,896 |
- |
|
12/19/2017 |
842,147,500 |
4,539,983,175 |
- |
|
12/20/2017 |
810,257,500 |
4,289,738,654 |
- |
|
12/21/2017 |
818,347,500 |
2,694,701,670 |
- |
|
12/22/2017 |
599,957,500 |
1,751,408,724 |
- |
|
12/23/2017 |
599,957,500 |
1,787,520,414 |
- |
|
12/24/2017 |
599,957,500 |
1,820,556,994 |
- |
|
12/25/2017 |
599,957,500 |
1,850,493,830 |
- |
|
12/26/2017 |
492,195,000 |
2,732,651,640 |
- |
|
12/27/2017 |
550,520,000 |
2,376,361,404 |
- |
|
12/28/2017 |
538,332,500 |
1,810,240,386 |
- |
|
12/29/2017 |
610,872,500 |
2,229,352,738 |
- |
|
12/30/2017 |
610,872,500 |
2,252,145,103 |
- |
|
12/31/2017 |
610,872,500 |
2,271,694,449 |
- |
|
1/1/2018 |
610,872,500 |
2,287,974,795 |
- |
|
1/2/2018 |
841,812,500 |
3,723,691,751 |
- |
|
1/3/2018 |
884,665,000 |
4,548,772,446 |
- |
|
1/4/2018 |
923,815,000 |
4,482,690,363 |
- |
|
1/5/2018 |
809,155,000 |
5,951,682,781 |
- |
|
1/6/2018 |
809,155,000 |
6,023,132,843 |
- |
|
1/7/2018 |
809,155,000 |
6,090,617,769 |
- |
|
1/8/2018 |
810,662,500 |
4,002,148,804 |
- |
|
1/9/2018 |
863,370,000 |
2,746,854,512 |
- |
|
1/10/2018 |
894,087,500 |
3,506,741,685 |
- |
|
1/11/2018 |
910,330,000 |
1,848,273,562 |
- |
|
1/12/2018 |
893,492,500 |
2,165,337,320 |
- |
|
1/13/2018 |
893,492,500 |
2,165,337,320 |
- |
|
1/14/2018 |
893,492,500 |
2,165,337,320 |
- |
|
1/15/2018 |
893,492,500 |
2,165,337,320 |
- |
|
1/16/2018 |
1,081,492,500 |
131,401,767 |
- |
|
1/17/2018 |
944,512,500 |
166,647,184 |
- |
|
1/18/2018 |
920,367,500 |
130,884,760 |
- |
|
1/19/2018 |
909,857,500 |
115,955,176 |
- |
|
1/20/2018 |
909,857,500 |
115,955,176 |
- |
|
1/21/2018 |
909,857,500 |
115,955,176 |
- |
|
1/22/2018 |
867,945,000 |
40,726,587 |
- |
|
1/23/2018 |
879,912,500 |
42,902,325 |
- |
|
1/24/2018 |
1,003,517,500 |
142,709,458 |
- |
|
1/25/2018 |
958,787,500 |
107,143,390 |
- |
|
1/26/2018 |
860,807,500 |
63,909,235 |
- |
|
1/27/2018 |
860,807,500 |
63,909,235 |
- |
|
1/28/2018 |
860,807,500 |
63,909,235 |
- |
|
1/29/2018 |
893,457,500 |
57,909,917 |
- |
|
1/30/2018 |
997,662,500 |
- |
- |
|
1/31/2018 |
1,065,320,000 |
15,715,307 |
- |
|
2/1/2018 |
984,612,500 |
- |
363,581,198 |
|
2/2/2018 |
1,075,282,500 |
- |
492,191,632 |
|
2/3/2018 |
1,075,282,500 |
- |
605,680,981 |
|
2/4/2018 |
1,075,282,500 |
- |
731,277,881 |
|
2/5/2018 |
1,320,865,000 |
- |
46,354,354,716 |
|
2/6/2018 |
1,472,915,000 |
- |
9,982,208,008 |
' Nuff said.
As for the original research, let's take an excerpt from a few pages released last December.
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