Veritaseum made a very interesting and controversial research report predicting significant margin calls in the yet to be launched bitcoin futures market. Well, now that we have two months of trading data to analyze, we get to brag and boast say, "We told you so". This is also a good opportunity to show how we can enable investors to gain exposure to bitcoin through VeADIR. We have revisited our Bitcoin future margin call research offered to VERI holders in early December of last year. This updated research covers the date of listing of CBOE BTC futures (11 Dec 2017) until last week. We have kept the same assumptions that we used in the initial research, except that we have now inserted actual BTC future prices for the aforementioned period These assumptions are summarized below:

 

To put the update in perspective, this is an excerpted page from the original research - warning of the likelihood of significant, material and probably unprecedented margin calls. 

BTC Futures margin calls4

Fastforward back to today... The table below illustrates the margin calls on short and long BTC futures. The volatility in BTC prices would have resulted in margin calls on almost all days during this period.

BTC Futures margin calls

Below is the table showing Long and Short Margin Call from 11th Dec 2017 to 6th Feb 2018

BTC Future Date

BTC Future Volume

Margin Calls - Long 

Margin Calls – Short

12/11/2017

        772,987,500

     3,787,568,702

                           -  

12/12/2017

       888,920,000

     4,805,027,231

                           -  

12/13/2017

        885,592,500

     4,079,566,768

                           -  

12/14/2017

        857,507,500

     4,161,403,407

                           -  

12/15/2017

    1,430,980,000

     8,563,207,407

                           -  

12/16/2017

    1,430,980,000

     8,883,927,955

                           -  

12/17/2017

    1,430,980,000

      9,199,193,256

                           -  

12/18/2017

        931,165,000

     7,543,421,896

                           -  

12/19/2017

        842,147,500

     4,539,983,175

                           -  

12/20/2017

        810,257,500

     4,289,738,654

                           -  

12/21/2017

        818,347,500

     2,694,701,670

                           -  

12/22/2017

        599,957,500

     1,751,408,724

                           -  

12/23/2017

        599,957,500

     1,787,520,414

                           -  

12/24/2017

        599,957,500

     1,820,556,994

                           -  

12/25/2017

        599,957,500

     1,850,493,830

                           -  

12/26/2017

        492,195,000

     2,732,651,640

                           -  

12/27/2017

       550,520,000

     2,376,361,404

                           -  

12/28/2017

        538,332,500

     1,810,240,386

                           -  

12/29/2017

        610,872,500

     2,229,352,738

                           -  

12/30/2017

        610,872,500

     2,252,145,103

                           -  

12/31/2017

        610,872,500

     2,271,694,449

                           -  

1/1/2018

        610,872,500

     2,287,974,795

                           -  

1/2/2018

        841,812,500

      3,723,691,751

                           -  

1/3/2018

       884,665,000

    4,548,772,446

                           -  

1/4/2018

        923,815,000

     4,482,690,363

                           -  

1/5/2018

        809,155,000

      5,951,682,781

                           -  

1/6/2018

        809,155,000

     6,023,132,843

                           -  

1/7/2018

        809,155,000

     6,090,617,769

                           -  

1/8/2018

        810,662,500

    4,002,148,804

                           -  

1/9/2018

       863,370,000

     2,746,854,512

                           -  

1/10/2018

       894,087,500

     3,506,741,685

                           -  

1/11/2018

       910,330,000

     1,848,273,562

                           -  

1/12/2018

        893,492,500

     2,165,337,320

                           -  

1/13/2018

        893,492,500

     2,165,337,320

                           -  

1/14/2018

        893,492,500

     2,165,337,320

                           -  

1/15/2018

        893,492,500

     2,165,337,320

                           -  

1/16/2018

     1,081,492,500

         131,401,767

                           -  

1/17/2018

        944,512,500

        166,647,184

                           -  

1/18/2018

        920,367,500

        130,884,760

                           -  

1/19/2018

        909,857,500

         115,955,176

                           -  

1/20/2018

        909,857,500

         115,955,176

                           -  

1/21/2018

        909,857,500

         115,955,176

                           -  

1/22/2018

       867,945,000

          40,726,587

                           -  

1/23/2018

        879,912,500

          42,902,325

                           -  

1/24/2018

     1,003,517,500

        142,709,458

                           -  

1/25/2018

        958,787,500

        107,143,390

                           -  

1/26/2018

       860,807,500

          63,909,235

                           -  

1/27/2018

       860,807,500

          63,909,235

                           -  

1/28/2018

       860,807,500

          63,909,235

                           -  

1/29/2018

        893,457,500

          57,909,917

                           -  

1/30/2018

        997,662,500

                         -  

                           -  

1/31/2018

    1,065,320,000

           15,715,307

                           -  

2/1/2018

        984,612,500

                         -  

           363,581,198

2/2/2018

     1,075,282,500

                         -  

           492,191,632

2/3/2018

     1,075,282,500

                         -  

          605,680,981

2/4/2018

     1,075,282,500

                         -  

           731,277,881

2/5/2018

     1,320,865,000

                         -  

     46,354,354,716

2/6/2018

     1,472,915,000

                         -  

       9,982,208,008

' Nuff said. 

As for the original research, let's take an excerpt from a few pages released last December.

BTC Futures margin calls1

BTC Futures margin calls2

 

BTC Futures margin calls4

BTC Futures margin calls6

BTC Futures margin calls7

 

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