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Is the Dollar Overvalued?

Exchange Rates’ Weak Response to Strong Employment Report Hints at Overvalued Dollar The January U.S. employment report showed 304,000 jobs added. By beating markets’ expectations of only 170,000 jobs by 134,000 jobs, it is one of the biggest employment surprises in several years. The dollar, however, exhibited atypically small responses against the other major floating currencies (the yen, pound, and euro), and this adds some support to our view that the dollar has more downside than upside potential in 2019.

February 2019 Audit Report For Veritaseum Asset Backed Tokens

February 2019 audit of Veritaseum holdings of precious metals inventory and holdings on befalf of its customers.

Tempering Commodities Optimism

Recent Optimism about Commodities Goes Too Far. We have noticed a growing optimism about the near-term path of many commodities prices. A recent example is Goldman Sachs, which cites an overvalued dollar, a more dovish Fed, Chinese stimulus, and tightening oil supplies as favoring commodities in 2019. We are not unsympathetic to their view, and we have recently written that oil and precious metals, in particular, enjoy short-term upside. We also agree that the dollar is overvalued (Figure 1 shows the BIS estimate of the real broad dollar exchange rate which controls for inflation) which, if it corrects, will boost many commodities prices. We also think that slowing global growth is likely to benefit the short-term prospects for many precious metals.

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