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Since early 2010, the broad trade-weighted U.S. dollar index and 5-year (nominal) combine to explain 71% of inflation-adjusted daily gold price movements. Replacing nominal yields with TIPs raises this figure to 79%. Furthermore, a 100 bps increase in TIPs yields correlates with a whopping 20.5% reduction in gold prices.
Commodities, including precious metals, do not have a stable price that they eventually return to in the long-term. There may, however, be stable long-term connections between different commodities, which help provide insight on whether any are mispriced.
Because supply disruptions may be related to geopolitical risk, we decided to see how political and economic uncertainty affect a forecasting model for crude oil. We consider both U.S. economic policy uncertainty, and Caldara and Iacoviellos’ (2017) measures of geopolitical uncertainty for the world, Saudi Arabia, and China.
Veritaseum, LLC (hereinafter “Veritaseum”) has engaged Brundidge & Stanger, P.C. for the purposes of independent verification of the assets (i.e. gold, silver, palladium, etc.) held by Veritaseum on behalf of holders of Veritaseum’s asset-back Tokens at the vault of Third-Party Storage Services (hereinafter “Custodian”) for the audit period of 02/1/2019 through 03/31/2019.
Continuing Brexit and Trade Uncertainty May Boost Gold. Two major sources of uncertainty, Brexit and heightened trade tensions, look increasingly likely to persist at least into late 2019. The latest Brexit delay until October 31 is mostly good news for the British pound (GBP) because it reduces the risk of a no-deal Brexit. It does mean, however, that heightened volatility will continue until at least this fall. President Trump’s latest threat to impose tariffs on Europe is another sign that trade tensions, despite continued optimism on U.S.-China negotiations, are likely to persist through 2020.
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